China is Losing

Family Update

The new pickleball place is finally open, and I played for the first time in six months. It didn't go great. Of course, Senay is out there playing with the pros, and occasionally making fun of my ineptitude.

We’re slowly introducing Stinker (our new kitten- we found out he’s a he!) to the rest of the animal family. He loves the dogs and happily chews on their ears like they’re chew toys. Thankfully, they’re sweet and gentle. The cats, however, are a different story. All three are extremely docile, but Stinker is all energy and enthusiasm. He’s determined to become friends and just wants to play, though his style is a bit... much.

He got a little too rough with Hemingway and ended up scratching his eye. Thankfully, Hemingway was totally fine after a couple of days.

It’s been a while since we looked at historical market data, so let’s take a step back and get grounded in reality (don’t worry, I promise not to bore you to death).

With the constant stream of negative headlines, it’s important to let history and data guide our thinking, not fear and emotion.

Here are a few facts worth remembering:

Over the last 50 years, the market has only ended the year in the red 11 times.
Only 5 of those had losses greater than 10%.

Over the long haul, the U.S. stock market has averaged around 10% annual returns for over 200 years.

The market is never “due” for a crash. Consider these stretches with no major collapses: 1942–1972, 1974–2000, 2009–2020. Sure, there were bumps—but no full-scale collapses.

If you had invested $100,000 in the S&P 500 in 2013, you’d now have around $370,000.

A $100,000 investment in 1960 grew to roughly $600,000 by 1980.

A $100,000 investment in 1990 grew to approximately $540,000 by 2000.

The United States still dominates global markets, accounting for approximately 61% of the world's total market capitalization. Japan is next at 6%, followed by the U.K. at 3.9% and China at 3.5%.

A 5–10% market dip typically recovers in 1–2 months.

Stock markets have been around since 1602. This is not a new experiment—it’s a time-tested engine of wealth.

The wealthiest 10% of Americans own about 89% of all stocks. They clearly believe in it.

In 2007, the most valuable U.S. companies were ExxonMobil, GE, Microsoft, and AT&T. Today, it’s Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Nvidia, showing how much innovation reshapes the market.

Every decade from 1930 through 2020 has ended with positive overall returns (!), despite wars, recessions, and political upheaval.

From 1900 to 2000, the average stock market return was 10.4% per year.

$1,000 invested in 1900 (approximately $32,000 in inflation-adjusted terms) would be worth over $20 million today.

If you put $100,000 in a money market 30 years ago, you’d have around $210,000 today. In the market? You’d have over $1.8 million.

If the stock market ever went to zero, we’d have far bigger problems. Think apocalypse, not a 401k loss.

In August 2000, Fortune magazine published “10 Stocks to Last the Decade.” That portfolio lost 74% by 2012. The lesson? No one can predict the future.

Most day traders lose money. Between 1992 and 2006, 80% of active traders lost money, and only 1% were consistently profitable.


So why are you looking at your statements? Why are you concerned every time you see a negative return? Because we are human, that's why. Hang in there. Everything is going to be alright..

Be Blessed,

Dave