Never Turn Your Back On A Panda Bear

dave and dalanee with pandas

Often times your perception of something effects the way you feel about it.  Even if your perception is based on completely erroneous information.

Often times I hear the same refrain, “I lost half my money in 2008.  I had friends that lost even more.  I hate the stock market!”

But what if I told you that your perception is not reality?  Let’s go to the data:

Let’s say you started with $100,000 and invested the money on January 1st, 2008.  If you had your money in a 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds,* what would have happened?  This kind of 60/40 portfolio is a pretty standard “balanced” investment strategy.

So what was your account balance at the end of 2008?

$79,901.  A 20% loss.  While certainly not an enjoyable experience, you didn’t lose half of the money.  By the way, in 2009 the same portfolio returned +18.26%.

Assuming you are utilizing a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, the data just doesn’t point to any severe losses.

I can’t guarantee what will happen in the future, but let’s take a look at the past forty one years of history.  (See chart at end of this article).

Takeways

  1. This is great news!

2.  You had a double digit loss ONE time (2008, -20.1%).

3.   You had a double digit gain TWENTY TWO times.

4.   Maybe once you retire, you can spend more of your savings than you realize. Maybe you can go visit the San Diego Zoo, like my wife and I, and hold panda bear cubs.

Be Blessed,

Dave

*$60,000 in the S & P 500 index, and $40,000 in the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index

YearReturnEnding Balance
1975-7620.6$120,596
1976-77-3.08$96,920
1977-784.5$104,500
1978-7911.94$111,937
1979-8020.55$120,553
1980-81-.45$99,546
1981-8225.98$125,976
1982-8316.88$116,876
1983-849.82$109,823
1984-8527.88$127,877
1985-8617.3$117,305
1986-874.25$104,253
1987-8813.09$113,092
1988-8924.79$124,791
1989-901.72$101,719
1990-9124.64$124,641
1991-927.53$107,526
1992-939.93$109,934
1993-94-.38$99,622
1994-9529.91$129,910
1995-9615.22$115,219
1996-9723.87$123,872
1997-9820.62$120,620
1998-9912.29$112,294
1999-00-.81$99,189
2000-01-3.75$96,252
2001-02-9.15$90,847
2002-0318.84$118,842
2003-048.26$108,260
2004-053.92$103,916
2005-0611.20$111,202
2006-076.08$106,081
2007-08-20.10$79,901
2008-0918.26$118,255
2009-1011.67$111,667
2010-114.39$104,389
2011-1211.28$111,278
2012-1318.61$118,613
2013-1410.58$110,585
2014-151.06$101,056
2015-168.21$108,212

The return of principal for bond funds and for funds with significant underlying bond holdings is not guaranteed. Fund shares are subject to the same interest rate, inflation and credit risks associated with the underlying bond holdings. The value of fixed-income securities may be affected by changing interest rates and changes in credit ratings of the securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. Indexes are unmanaged portfolios and individuals cannot invest directly in an index.  Actual results will vary.

The return of principal for bond funds and for funds with significant underlying bond holdings is not guaranteed. Fund shares are subject to the same interest rate, inflation and credit risks associated with the underlying bond holdings.

The value of fixed-income securities may be affected by changing interest rates and changes in credit ratings of the securities.

 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. Indexes are unmanaged portfolios and individuals cannot invest directly in an index.  Actual results will vary.

This communication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or product, and does not constitute legal or tax advice. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee accuracy or completeness. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax, or accounting counsel.

 

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