October 6


China is Losing


I apologize for all the pet pictures. When you have a puppy it is hard to resist. I am getting a little frustrated because my puppy (who I lavish with attention) likes his brother way more than me.

Alex did well at his cross-country meet last week, finishing 37th out of 145 runners. We left his school in Sarasota with his three buddies at 2:45 and arrived at North Port by 4:00. The race wasn't until 5:30, so the boys went to "warm up," which was basically them just goofing around.

The race lasted 15 minutes, and then they had to do some cool-down running. We hit some traffic driving back. We dropped off his friends at the wrong school campus, so we had to wait for their parents. We got home at 7:45. I don't want to sound like a crabby father, but we ran around for five hours for a fifteen-minute race. It's all part of being a dad, I guess. 

While the first half of the year was great in the markets, the last few months haven't been any fun. Believe it or not, though, the markets are still up 11.57% on the year. It is so easy to forget the excitement of seeing your accounts grow (just five months ago).

It’s been a while since we’ve delved deep into historical stock market data. Therefore, this week, I will bore the heck out of you. (just kidding)

With the unrelenting bad news all around us, let us allow data and history to determine our actions. Let’s stay away from knee-jerk, fear-based, emotional investment decisions.

Fact: In the past 50 years, the stock market was down ten out of fifty years.

Fact: Only five of those ten times saw a double-digit decrease.

Fact: The stock market, as a whole, has averaged a 10% return for 200 YEARS.

Fact: The stock market is never “due” for a crash. 1942-1972 saw no crash. 1974-2000 saw no crash. 2000-2008 saw no crash. 2008-2023 saw no crash. Were there “mini-crashes” where you might have lost 10% temporarily? Yes. But nothing serious enough to mention.

Fact: If you invested $100,000 in 2013, you now have $355,000.

Fact: If you invested $100,000 in 1990, in 2000, you would have accumulated $499,000.

Fact: If you invested $100,000 in 1960, twenty years later, it would have grown to $495,000.

Fact: This is incredible: The United States makes up 58.4% of the world stock market. Then comes Japan at 6.3%, the U.K. at 4.1% and China at 3.7%.

Fact: 5-10% stock market declines generally, historically, require a month or two to recover.

Fact: The stock market can be dated back to 1602. It has worked for 400 years. This is not a new concept.

Fact: The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 84% of the stock market (they clearly believe in it).

Fact: Before the financial crisis in 2008, the most valuable companies on the stock market were ExxonMobil, General Electric, Microsoft, and AT&T. Now, the most valuable are all technology companies: Apple, Amazon, Google, Tesla, and Microsoft.

Fact: 1930-1940, 1940-1950, 1950-1960, 1960-1970, 1970-1980, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2020 all had overall positive returns.

Fact: From 1900-2000, the stock market returned an average of 10.4%.

Fact: $1000 invested in 1900 would be worth $19 million today.

Fact: If you started saving for retirement 30 years ago and dropped $100,000 into a money market, its current value would be around $203,000. If the money had been invested in the stock market, the current value would be $1,700,000.

Fact: Few people put all of their money into stocks. Bonds are also a key component of most portfolios. Generally speaking, bonds go up when stocks go down.

Fact: If the stock market ever went to zero, we would live in a post-apocalyptic wasteland.

Fact: In August 2000, Fortune magazine published “10 Stocks to Last the Decade." By December 2012, a portfolio containing those ten stocks lost 74.3% of its value. (in other words- nobody can predict what stocks will go up and down. Diversification is king).

Fact: Most day traders garner the lowest returns. Between 1992 and 2006, 80% of active traders lost money, and only 1% were profitable.

What a reality check.

Be Blessed,


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