Senay is back from college for Spring Break. Grammy has also flown down from Pittsburgh to hang out. They went on a ten-mile bike ride today. Not too bad for a Grammy! The boys are showing their faces a little more during the additional activity. Teenage boys hibernate in their rooms like bears.
Moving can be fun because it allows you to go through all your belongings and get rid of things. I estimate that about 75% of what we have goes to the VA or the garbage. Some of these bins haven’t been opened since we moved into our current house. If you haven’t needed something in five years and didn’t even realize you had it, I think it’s time to let it go.
We’ve been packing for days, and my youngest, Jesse, said to me, "On the day of the move, I’ll just stuff all my clothes in a bag and throw my laptop and Xbox in my backpack. That’s all I have."
Below you'll see one of our intense workouts. I'll let you know when we enter our first bodybuilding competition.
Scenario #1: The 10% Drop
Scene: A quiet kitchen. The husband stares at the laptop like it just insulted his mother. The wife sips her coffee, unbothered.
Husband (clutching coffee mug like a lifeline): This is bad. This is really bad.
Wife (barely looking up from crossword): Oh?
Husband: We’re down ten percent! Ten percent!
Wife: From what?
Husband: From everything!
Wife: Uh-huh. So, what’s the actual number?
Husband (squinting at screen): Well... we were at $500,000. Now we’re at $450,000.
Wife (calmly sipping coffee): Okay.
Husband: Okay?! We just lost fifty grand! Fifty. Thousand. Dollars.
Wife: So don’t check it every day.
Husband: That’s not helping either.
Wife: You know, I was reading yesterday about this. People feel losses twice as intensely as gains. It’s called loss aversion.
Husband: Oh, I feel it. Right in my chest.
Wife: You know what Dave says. In a few years, no matter what it does daily, you will look back and say, "Hmmm. That wasn’t so bad. My portfolio did fine overall."
Husband: That doesn’t make me feel better.
Wife: Would it help if I baked my famous blueberry pie?
Husband (pause): Maybe.
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Scenario #2: A 10% Gain
Same kitchen, different season. A new headline flashes on the laptop screen.
Husband (peering at laptop cautiously): Huh.
Wife (chopping vegetables): Huh, what?
Husband: We’re up ten percent.
Wife: Well, would you look at that.
Husband: We’re at $550,000 now.
Wife: Lovely.
Husband: That’s it? Lovely?
Wife: What do you want me to do, throw confetti?
Husband: Well, I mean… when we lost ten percent, I nearly had a heart attack. This is the same amount, just in the other direction. Shouldn’t it feel… I don’t know… amazing?
Wife: Should it?
Husband: I guess so. But it just feels… normal.
Wife: Yep. I guess that’s how human brains work. Losses hit harder than gains feel good.
Husband: There has to be some science behind this.
Wife: Yep. We talked about that in the fictional scenario between us seen above.
Husband: So what do we do?
Wife: Stop staring at it every day. The market goes up over time. Dave has been saying this every week for ten years. Temporary volatility due to uncertainty in the world happens all the time.
It’s been smooth sailing recently, so it’s easy to forget. Remember how it lost 34% in three months in 2020? I didn’t think so. Remember how the markets returned 12% on average over the last ten years? Nope. Heck, you forgot what you had for lunch yesterday.
Husband: So you’re saying… I should just let it be.
Wife: I’m saying let’s eat dinner and not turn our kitchen table into a therapy session for our portfolio.
Husband: Fine. I’ll allow myself mild enthusiasm.
Wife: Atta boy.
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Imagine you’re given two choices:
1.You can take a guaranteed $50 right now.
2.You can flip a coin—heads, you get $140; tails, you get nothing.
Most people take the guaranteed $50, even though the second option mathematically has a higher expected value ($70 on average).
The reason is simple: the fear of leaving empty-handed often outweighs the excitement of winning more. Research indicates that people generally avoid taking risks when it comes to gains; we prefer to secure a guaranteed outcome rather than take a chance, even when the odds are in our favor.
Losses feel terrible. Gains feel... fine. That’s human nature. But the stock market doesn’t work on feelings—it works on time.
Be Blessed,
Dave